Forecast Accuracy Formula:
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Definition: This calculator determines the accuracy percentage of a forecast based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Purpose: It helps analysts and businesses evaluate how accurate their forecasting models are, with higher percentages indicating better accuracy.
The calculator uses the formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula converts MAPE (which measures error) into an accuracy percentage by subtracting from 1 and multiplying by 100.
Details: Measuring forecast accuracy helps businesses improve inventory management, resource allocation, and financial planning by understanding how reliable their predictions are.
Tips: Enter the MAPE value (between 0 and 1) to calculate the corresponding accuracy percentage. A MAPE of 0.1 would indicate 90% accuracy.
Q1: What is considered a good accuracy percentage?
A: Generally, >90% is excellent, 80-90% is good, and <80% may need improvement. Standards vary by industry.
Q2: How do I calculate MAPE?
A: MAPE is calculated as the average of absolute percentage errors between actual and forecasted values.
Q3: Can accuracy be over 100%?
A: No, the maximum accuracy is 100% (when MAPE = 0). Values over 100% indicate a calculation error.
Q4: What if my MAPE is greater than 1?
A: MAPE should be between 0-1. Values >1 suggest the forecasting model has significant errors.
Q5: Are there alternatives to MAPE?
A: Yes, other metrics include Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).